Aryna Sabalenka vs Maiko Uchijima — Toronto Round of 64

Toronto · WTA · Round of 64
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$5.1MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWLWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
JPN
Maiko Uchijima
22 yrs
Last 10
WWLLWWWLWL
Sabalenka A.
vs
Uchijima M.

Around the match

  • “I want to get completely drunk, forget about tennis. And try to get better.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I have huge hopes for the second half. I really hope it's going to work out well on the hard court again.”

    Sabalenka A.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Sabalenka A.94%
Uchijima M.6%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Sabalenka A. 3–0 · Uchijima M. 2–0 · small sample
Both won · same surface · 7 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Uchijima M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
10.010 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.04 of last 6 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 1 matches

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Uchijima M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
73%
1st serve points won·Dominant
72%
40%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
46%
Service points won·Clear edge
66%
42%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
39%
Break points saved·Dominant
65%
0%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.8
0.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Uchijima M.

Uchijima M.serving56% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Uchijima M.
Freshness·
—
57

Uchijima M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 97 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 77%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw