Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti — Montreal Round of 64
ITA11
Mejia N.
Nicolas Mejia faces Lorenzo Musetti in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Lorenzo Musetti holds the paper edge — ranked #13, a roughly 380-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Musetti L. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Lorenzo Musetti has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 88 vs Nicolas Mejia's 26).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Nicolas Mejia 78 games in 14 days, Lorenzo Musetti 64.
- Last match: Nicolas Mejia dropped the opening set before beating Martin Landaluce 4–6 6–4 6–3.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMejia N.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d) · Musetti L.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.