Anna Kalinskaya vs Mccartney KesslerToronto Round of 64

Toronto · WTA · Round of 64
#20WTA
1907ELO
1863Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$7.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLLWL
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
#47WTA
1808ELO
1785Hard ELO
$742kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
27 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLWWLLL
Kalinskaya A.
vs
Kessler M.

Anna Kalinskaya faces Mccartney Kessler in the Toronto round of 64 on hard. Anna Kalinskaya holds the paper edge — ranked #20, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Kalinskaya A.64%
Kessler M.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kalinskaya A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
10 common opponents · Kalinskaya A. 7–4 · Kessler M. 4–6
Both lost · same surface, 15 days apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+78 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Hard Elo 1784
6.2Overall Elo 1907
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1808
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Even
52%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kalinskaya A.serving73% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kessler M.

Kessler M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kalinskaya A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
72
49
Break points saved·Even
32
28
Break points won·Slight edge
95
88
Deciding sets·Even
90
86
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
74
94

Kalinskaya A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d) · Kessler M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°CDrizzle
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 71%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw