Francisca Jorge vs Kira PavlovaW75 Ourense Round of 16

W75 Ourense · ITF · Round of 16
#232WTA
1525ELO
1510Hard ELO
26 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
#347WTA
1293ELO
1261Hard ELO
22 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWW
Jorge F.
6-7 2-6
Pavlova K.
Jorge F.
620
Pavlova K.
762

Kira Pavlova defeated Francisca Jorge in the Round of 16 at the W75 Ourense tournament, winning 7-6, 6-2 on hard courts. Pavlova and Jorge were even in aces with zero each, but Pavlova had more double faults, 4 to 1. Pavlova converted 67% of her break points to Jorge's 22%, and she had four service breaks to Jorge's two.

Key context

  • Match story: Kira Pavlova closed it out in two sets, 7–6 6–2.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-09W50 Corroios-SeixalR16hardFrancisca Jorge2-6 3-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
53%
Return points won·Even
47%
48%
Break points saved·Even
50%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.0
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.3
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Jorge F.69%
Pavlova K.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jorge F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.1+250 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Hard Elo 1260
7.9Overall Elo 1525
ELO gap
2.1Overall Elo 1293
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
5.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
20°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 63%

Draw