Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet — Montreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
Rafael Jodar
ESP20
Rafael Jodar
#15ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10
LWWWWLWWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
Corentin Moutet
FRA
Corentin Moutet
#59ATP
1745ELO
1727Hard ELO
$739kYTD
$6.4MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLLLLLWLL
Jodar R.
vs
Moutet C.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Jodar R.74%
Moutet C.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jodar R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
12 common opponents · Jodar R. 9–3 · Moutet C. 4–11
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Moutet C.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+146 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1727
8.2Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
1.8Overall Elo 1745
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.44 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

47 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Moutet C.
1st serve in·Even
63%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
60%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.4
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (47 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Jodar R.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Moutet C.

Moutet C.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Jodar R.

Serve advantage — Jodar R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Moutet C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
86
69
Break points saved·Even
91
91
Break points won·Clear edge
71
56
Deciding sets·Clear edge
100
79
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Moutet C.
Freshness·Dominant
53
83

Jodar R.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 119 games (7d) · Moutet C.: played today · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 71%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw