Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet — Montreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
Brandon Nakashima
USA28
Brandon Nakashima
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWLLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
Titouan Droguet
FRA
Titouan Droguet
#119ATP
1717ELO
1650Hard ELO
$295kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWLWWLW
Nakashima B.
vs
Droguet T.

Brandon Nakashima faces Titouan Droguet in the Montreal round of 32 on hard. Brandon Nakashima is the paper favourite — ranked #31, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but Titouan Droguet rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Nakashima B.68%
Droguet T.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Nakashima B. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
9 common opponents · Nakashima B. 8–3 · Droguet T. 7–4
Both lost · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nakashima B.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Droguet T.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+138 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1650
6.5Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1717
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.87 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
Nakashima B.Droguet T.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
69%
65%
Return points won·Even
34%
36%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
10.7
8.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
0.8
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Droguet T.

Droguet T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Nakashima B.Droguet T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
28
64
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
88
Break points won·Clear edge
4
17
Deciding sets·Dominant
17
93
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
82
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Nakashima B.Droguet T.
Freshness·Slight edge
67
61

Nakashima B.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 97 games (7d) · Droguet T.: played today · 3 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 86%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw