Sloane Stephens vs Belinda Bencic — Toronto Round of 64
SUI12
Stephens S.
Sloane Stephens faces Belinda Bencic in the Toronto round of 64 on hard. Belinda Bencic is the paper favourite — ranked #14, a roughly 320-point hard Elo advantage — but Sloane Stephens has won both their previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Bencic B. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Belinda Bencic has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 88 vs Sloane Stephens's 58).
- Fatigue load: Sloane Stephens carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Head-to-head: Sloane Stephens leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at Guadalajara 2 2022.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadStephens S.: played today · 4 matches, 90 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-17 | Guadalajara 2 | R32 | hard | Sloane Stephens | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2015-03-23 | Miami | R16 | hard | Sloane Stephens | 6-4 7-6 |