Sara Bejlek vs Iga Swiatek — Toronto Round of 64

Toronto · WTA · Round of 64
Sara Bejlek
CZE
Sara Bejlek
#38WTA
1776ELO
1749Hard ELO
$682kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
20 yrs · 163 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWLLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
Iga Swiatek
POL7
Iga Swiatek
#8WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLWWWL
Bejlek S.
vs
Swiatek I.

Sara Bejlek faces Iga Swiatek in the Toronto round of 64 on hard. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 270-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Bejlek S.18%
Swiatek I.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Swiatek I. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Roland Garros 2026.
  • Fatigue load: Sara Bejlek carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
7 common opponents · Bejlek S. 2–6 · Swiatek I. 8–3
Swiatek I. better · different surfaces (Clay × Hard) · incl. team event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bejlek S.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Swiatek I.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.6Hard Elo 1749
Surface ELO
8.4+273 Hard Elo edge
1.4Overall Elo 1776
ELO gap
8.6Overall Elo 2064
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

24 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
Bejlek S.Swiatek I.
1st serve in·Even
64%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
59%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
48%
Break points saved·Even
55%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.9
2.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bejlek S.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Swiatek I.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Bejlek S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Bejlek S.Swiatek I.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
79
93
Break points saved·Even
77
81
Break points won·Even
97
100
Deciding sets·Even
95
95
Tiebreaks·Dominant
61
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Bejlek S.Swiatek I.
Freshness·
91
—

Bejlek S.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 77%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-27Roland GarrosR64clayIga Swiatek2-6 3-6

Draw