Daria Zelinskaya vs Arina ArifullinaW15 Astana 4 Round of 32

W15 Astana 4 · ITF · Round of 32
#606WTA
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLLLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
#805WTA
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
Zelinskaya D.
1-6 3-6
Arifullina A.
Zelinskaya D.
130
Arifullina A.
662

Arina Arifullina defeated Daria Zelinskaya in the Round of 32 at the W15 Astana 4 tournament, winning 6-1, 6-3 on hard courts. Arifullina had a stronger service game, converting five service breaks to Zelinskaya's one, and also had a higher first-serve win percentage. Arifullina and Zelinskaya were even in aces with zero each, but Arifullina made fewer double faults than Zelinskaya, 2 to 4.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-08-01W25 AstanaQ16hardDaria Zelinskaya6-4 6-0

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
65%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
51%
38%
Service points won·Even
58%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
50%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.3
1.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.1
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Zelinskaya D.75%
Arifullina A.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Zelinskaya D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.34 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
31°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 30%

Draw