Titouan Droguet vs Felix Auger AliassimeMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#119ATP
1717ELO
1650Hard ELO
$295kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWLWW
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
#4ATP
1958ELO
1932Hard ELO
$2.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWLW
Droguet T.
vs
Auger Aliassime F.

Titouan Droguet faces Felix Auger Aliassime in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Felix Auger Aliassime holds the paper edge — ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 280-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Droguet T.20%
Auger Aliassime F.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Auger Aliassime F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
5 common opponents · Droguet T. 3–2 · Auger Aliassime F. 3–2
Droguet T. better · same surface
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.5Hard Elo 1650
Surface ELO
8.5+282 Hard Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1717
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 1958
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.57 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 43 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
70%
Return points won·Even
36%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.7
10.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Droguet T.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Auger Aliassime F.

Auger Aliassime F.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Droguet T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
64
74
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
99
Break points won·Clear edge
17
29
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
63

Droguet T.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 71%

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-02MontpellierSFhardFelix Auger Aliassime6-4 6-7 6-1

Draw