Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Toronto Round of 64
Osorio C.
Camila Osorio faces Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Toronto round of 64 on hard. Ekaterina Alexandrova is the paper favourite — ranked #19, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage — but Camila Osorio has won all three of their previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Ekaterina Alexandrova leads on Serve Rating (50), Camila Osorio on Return Rating (66).
- Head-to-head: Camila Osorio leads the head-to-head 3–0, 1–0 on hard. Last met at Roland Garros 2026.
- Fatigue load: Ekaterina Alexandrova carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadOsorio C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Alexandrova E.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
3–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | R128 | clay | Camila Osorio | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-10-17 | Guadalajara 2 | R64 | hard | Camila Osorio | 6-4 7-6 |
| 2021-06-28 | Wimbledon | R64 | grass | Camila Osorio | 7-5 6-2 |