Lisa Zaar vs Nastasja SchunkW75 Leipzig Round of 32

W75 Leipzig · ITF · Round of 32
#299WTA
1527ELO
1499Clay ELO
26 yrs
Last 10
LLLLLWWLLW
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
clay
#421WTA
1399ELO
1387Clay ELO
22 yrs · 171 cm
Last 10
LWWLWWWWWW
Zaar L.
vs
Schunk N.

Lisa Zaar faces Nastasja Schunk in the W75 Leipzig round of 32 on clay. Lisa Zaar is the paper favourite — ranked #299, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage — but Nastasja Schunk arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on clay to Lisa Zaar's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Zaar L.40%
Schunk N.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Schunk N. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+112 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1387
6.6Overall Elo 1527
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1399
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.24 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.47 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

42 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
80%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
56%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
49%
Service points won·Even
54%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
53%
46%
Break points saved·Even
56%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.1
1.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Zaar L.serving39% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Schunk N.

Schunk N.serving30% hold

wins 42% of points on serve vs Zaar L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
97

Zaar L.: 16 days rest · Schunk N.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 63%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw