Aryan Shah vs Luca PotenzaM25+H Tauste Round of 16

M25+H Tauste · ITF · Round of 16
#976ATP
1235ELO
1228Hard ELO
20 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
#482ATP
1342ELO
1317Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWLLW
Shah A.
4-6 6-3 7-5
Potenza L.
Shah A.
4672
Potenza L.
6351

Aryan Shah defeated Luca Potenza 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 in the Round of 16 at the M25+H Tauste tournament. Shah served 9 aces and committed 5 double faults, while Potenza had 10 aces and 4 double faults. Shah converted 36% of break points and saved more first serves, winning 85% of those points, compared to Potenza's 68%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
40%
Break points saved·Even
52%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.9
2.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.8
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Shah A.39%
Potenza L.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Potenza L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1228
Surface ELO
6.1+89 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1235
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1342
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.92 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.54 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
24°CMainly clear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 55%

Draw