Nicolas Oliveira vs Carlos Maria ZarateM25 Londrina Round of 16

M25 Londrina · ITF · Round of 16
#816ATP
20 yrs
Last 10
WLWLLWWWWW
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
clay
#387ATP
1200ELO
1187Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10
WLWLWWWLWW
Oliveira N.
vs
Maria Zarate C.

Nicolas Oliveira faces Carlos Maria Zarate in the M25 Londrina round of 16 on clay. Carlos Maria Zarate holds the paper edge — ranked #387. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Oliveira N.24%
Maria Zarate C.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Maria Zarate C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.22 of last 5 on clay
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

1 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
48%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Even
38%
42%
Break points saved·Dominant
25%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.7
Double faults / match·Even
4.0
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Oliveira N.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Maria Zarate C.

Maria Zarate C.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Oliveira N.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
21°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 75%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw