Zizou Bergs vs Sebastian Baez — Montreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64

BEL31

Zizou Bergs

#34ATP

1808ELO

1757Hard ELO

$1.1MYTD

$4.1MCAREER

27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWWWWWWWW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 5 August 2026 · 11:00

hard

Court 4 · 1st on

ARG

Sebastian Baez

#48ATP

1759ELO

1709Hard ELO

$924kYTD

$6.9MCAREER

25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWLWWLWW

Bergs Z.

Baez S.

Zizou Bergs faces Sebastian Baez in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Zizou Bergs holds the paper edge — ranked #34, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Bergs Z.68%

Baez S.32%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bergs Z. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Zizou Bergs comes in with 9 days of rest and 19 games in 14d, vs Sebastian Baez's 1 and 68.
Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Zizou Bergs grades 23 on serve, Sebastian Baez 61 on return.
Head-to-head: Zizou Bergs leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Antwerp 2024.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

19 common opponents · Bergs Z. 14–9 · Baez S. 12–9

Both lost · same surface, 0 days apart▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Bergs Z.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Baez S.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.6+48 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.4Hard Elo 1709

5.6Overall Elo 1808

ELO gap

4.4Overall Elo 1759

7.0Leads 1–0 on hard

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on hard

3.13 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.96 of last 10 on hard

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 37 matches

Statistics

This season

Bergs Z.Baez S.

1st serve in·Clear edge

58%

72%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

73%

65%

2nd serve points won·Even

52%

Service points won·Even

64%

61%

Return points won·Even

37%

38%

Break points saved·Even

63%

65%

Aces / match·Dominant

7.6

1.8

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.4

1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Bergs Z.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Bergs Z.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Bergs Z.Baez S.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on hard

Bergs Z.Baez S.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Bergs Z.Baez S.

Freshness·Clear edge

Bergs Z.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Baez S.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

23°CClear

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 73%

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2024-10-14	Antwerp	R16	hard	Zizou Bergs	6-3 6-4

Zizou Bergs vs Sebastian Baez — Montreal Round of 64

Win Probability

Key context

Common opponents

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Serve & return on hard

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw

Serve & return on hard