Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Montreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
Ugo Humbert
FRA24
Ugo Humbert
#28ATP
1868ELO
1843Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWWWLW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 5th on
ESP
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#63ATP
1744ELO
1676Hard ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWLWL
Humbert U.
vs
Merida Aguilar D.

Ugo Humbert faces Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Ugo Humbert holds the paper edge — ranked #28, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Humbert U.61%
Merida Aguilar D.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Humbert U. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
6 common opponents · Humbert U. 3–5 · Merida Aguilar D. 2–4
Humbert U. better · different surfaces (Hard × Grass)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Humbert U.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Merida Aguilar D.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.1+168 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Hard Elo 1676
6.6Overall Elo 1868
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1744
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 38 matches

Statistics

This season
Humbert U.Merida Aguilar D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.2
2.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Humbert U.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Merida Aguilar D.

Merida Aguilar D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Humbert U.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Humbert U.Merida Aguilar D.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
42
55
Break points saved·Dominant
98
64
Break points won·Clear edge
24
46
Deciding sets·Dominant
28
87
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
49

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Humbert U.Merida Aguilar D.
Freshness·Slight edge
85
78

Humbert U.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Merida Aguilar D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
27°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw