Kristina Penickova vs Antonia Vergara Rivera — W35 Southaven Round of 32

W35 Southaven · ITF · Round of 32
USA
Kristina Penickova
#770WTA
16 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLLWWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
CHI2
Antonia Vergara Rivera
#346WTA
1351ELO
1291Hard ELO
19 yrs
Last 10
LWLLWWLLWW
Penickova K.
vs
Vergara Rivera A.

Kristina Penickova faces Antonia Vergara Rivera in the W35 Southaven round of 32 on hard. Antonia Vergara Rivera holds the paper edge — ranked #346.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Penickova K.28%
Vergara Rivera A.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Vergara Rivera A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Penickova K.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Vergara Rivera A.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.87 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.6Won 43% in Usa (23)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

5 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Penickova K.Vergara Rivera A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
42%
Service points won·Even
54%
53%
Return points won·Even
48%
52%
Break points saved·Even
55%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.0
0.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Penickova K.serving38% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Vergara Rivera A.

Vergara Rivera A.serving46% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Penickova K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Penickova K.Vergara Rivera A.
Freshness·
100
—

Penickova K.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 58%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw