Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Dominik Palan — M25+H Tauste Round of 32

M25+H Tauste · ITF · Round of 32
GRE
Pavlos Tsitsipas
#1037ATP
21 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
CZE5
Dominik Palan
#498ATP
1214ELO
1201Hard ELO
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWWWLL
Tsitsipas P.
vs
Palan D.

Pavlos Tsitsipas faces Dominik Palan in the M25+H Tauste round of 32 on hard. Dominik Palan holds the paper edge — ranked #498.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Tsitsipas P.25%
Palan D.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Palan D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Dominik Palan carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Pavlos Tsitsipas 5 of 8, Dominik Palan 6 of 8 on hard recently — Dominik Palan the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tsitsipas P.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Palan D.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
0.81 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 8
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

11 vs 2 matches

Statistics

This season
Tsitsipas P.Palan D.
1st serve in·Even
56%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
81%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
71%
Return points won·Even
34%
32%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.5
12.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.0
6.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tsitsipas P.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Palan D.

Palan D.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Tsitsipas P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Tsitsipas P.Palan D.
Freshness·
—
90

Palan D.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
34°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 23%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw