Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys — Toronto Round of 64

Toronto · WTA · Round of 64

CRO

Antonia Ruzic

#55WTA

1739ELO

1717Hard ELO

$768kYTD

$1.4MCAREER

23 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWLLWWLW

—

Sets

Tuesday, 4 August 2026 · 14:00

hard

USA19

Madison Keys

#22WTA

1987ELO

1920Hard ELO

$1.5MYTD

$25MCAREER

31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWWWWWWWW

Ruzic A.

Keys M.

Antonia Ruzic faces Madison Keys in the Toronto round of 64 on hard. Madison Keys holds the paper edge — ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC

Ruzic A.20%

Keys M.80%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Antonia Ruzic 23 games in 14 days, Madison Keys 29.
Last match: Antonia Ruzic dropped the opening set before beating Lois Boisson 4–6 6–1 6–3.
Head-to-head: Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Roland Garros 2026.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

9 common opponents · Ruzic A. 4–7 · Keys M. 6–3

Ruzic A. better · same surface · 6 months apart · ⚠ retirement-shortened match▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Ruzic A.

4.2

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Keys M.

7.1

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

2.5Hard Elo 1717

Surface ELO

7.5+203 Hard Elo edge

1.9Overall Elo 1739

ELO gap

8.1Overall Elo 1987

5.0First meeting on hard

H2H

5.0First meeting on hard

4.85 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.66 of last 10 on hard

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season

Ruzic A.Keys M.

1st serve in·Even

67%

65%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

58%

68%

2nd serve points won·Even

46%

47%

Service points won·Slight edge

54%

61%

Return points won·Even

43%

44%

Break points saved·Slight edge

57%

64%

Aces / match·Clear edge

1.5

3.9

Double faults / match·Even

3.2

3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Ruzic A.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Ruzic A.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Ruzic A.Keys M.

Clutch Rating·Slight edge

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Clear edge

Tiebreaks·

—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on hard

Ruzic A.Keys M.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Ruzic A.Keys M.

Freshness·Slight edge

Ruzic A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Keys M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather forecast

24°CClear

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 59%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-05-28	Roland Garros	R64	clay	Madison Keys	4-6 4-6

Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys — Toronto Round of 64

Win Probability

Key context

Common opponents

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Serve & return on hard

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw

Serve & return on hard