Lorenzo Rottoli vs Gianmarco FerrariM25 Fano Round of 32

M25 Fano · ITF · Round of 32
#886ATP
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
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Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
clay
#456ATP
25 yrs · 191 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLLLLL
Rottoli L.
vs
Ferrari G.

Lorenzo Rottoli faces Gianmarco Ferrari in the M25 Fano round of 32 on clay. Gianmarco Ferrari is the paper favourite — ranked #456 — but Lorenzo Rottoli arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 8 on clay to Gianmarco Ferrari's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Rottoli L.39%
Ferrari G.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Ferrari G. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.92 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

13 vs 6 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
69%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
59%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Rottoli L.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Ferrari G.

Ferrari G.serving56% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Rottoli L.

Serve advantage — Rottoli L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 63%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw