James Duckworth vs Alex De Minaur — Montreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
James Duckworth
AUS
James Duckworth
#86ATP
1628ELO
1592Hard ELO
$488kYTD
$5.4MCAREER
34 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLLLWL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 4th on
Alex De Minaur
AUS3
Alex De Minaur
#7ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWLWW
Duckworth J.
vs
De Minaur A.

James Duckworth faces Alex De Minaur in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Alex De Minaur holds the paper edge — ranked #7, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 340-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Duckworth J.20%
De Minaur A.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
7 common opponents · Duckworth J. 4–5 · De Minaur A. 4–7
Both lost · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Duckworth J.
3.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
De Minaur A.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.7Hard Elo 1592
Surface ELO
9.3+343 Hard Elo edge
0.8Overall Elo 1628
ELO gap
9.2Overall Elo 1961
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.54 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.56 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 38 matches

Statistics

This season
Duckworth J.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Even
56%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
41%
Break points saved·Even
73%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.4
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.8
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Duckworth J.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Duckworth J.

Serve advantage — De Minaur A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Duckworth J.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
26
95
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
98
Break points won·Dominant
1
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
24
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Duckworth J.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Even
75
77

Duckworth J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 68 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 70%

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-01WimbledonR128grassAlex De Minaur7-6 7-6 7-6
2022-07-25AtlantaR16hardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-4

Draw