Flavio Cobolli vs Yannick HanfmannMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#8ATP
1896ELO
1810Hard ELO
$3.2MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWWLLLW
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 5th on
#57ATP
1781ELO
1721Hard ELO
$608kYTD
$4.5MCAREER
34 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWWLW
Cobolli F.
vs
Hanfmann Y.

Flavio Cobolli faces Yannick Hanfmann in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Flavio Cobolli holds the paper edge — ranked #8, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Cobolli F.64%
Hanfmann Y.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cobolli F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
12 common opponents · Cobolli F. 9–9 · Hanfmann Y. 7–5
Cobolli F. better · different surfaces (Clay × Grass)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+89 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1721
6.4Overall Elo 1896
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1781
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

43 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
35%
Break points saved·Even
62%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.6
8.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cobolli F.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Hanfmann Y.

Hanfmann Y.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
73
47
Break points saved·Slight edge
95
90
Break points won·Dominant
34
5
Deciding sets·Even
98
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
32

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
75

Cobolli F.: 20 days rest · Hanfmann Y.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
22°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 73%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw