Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic — Montreal Round of 64
USA15
CRO
Tiafoe F.
Frances Tiafoe faces Marin Cilic in the Montreal round of 64 on hard. Frances Tiafoe is the paper favourite — ranked #20, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage — but Marin Cilic has won both their previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Tiafoe F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Frances Tiafoe comes in with 7 days of rest and 29 games in 14d, vs Marin Cilic's 0 and 20.
- Head-to-head: Marin Cilic leads the head-to-head 2–0, 0–1 on hard. Last met at Davis Cup WG SF: CRO vs USA 2018.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-09-14 | Davis Cup WG SF: CRO vs USA | RR | clay | Marin Cilic | 6-1 6-3 7-6 |
| 2017-09-22 | Laver Cup | RR | hard | Marin Cilic | 7-6 7-6 |