Pablo Carreno Busta vs Valentin RoyerMontreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
#68ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 2nd on
#78ATP
1641ELO
1585Hard ELO
$521kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
Carreno Busta P.
6-1 5-7 2-6
Royer V.
Carreno Busta P.
6521
Royer V.
1762

Valentin Royer defeated Pablo Carreno Busta in the Round of 128 at the Montreal tournament. The match ended with a score of 1-6, 7-5, 6-2 in favor of Royer.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
5.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
44
59
Break points saved·Even
93
94
Break points won·Clear edge
54
30
Deciding sets·Dominant
15
76
Tiebreaks·Dominant
87
62

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Carreno Busta P.65%
Royer V.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Carreno Busta P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+159 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1585
7.0Overall Elo 1800
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1641
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.22 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
95
100

Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Royer V.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw