G. Carlini vs Noah Lopez Cherubino — M25+H Tauste Round of 32

M25+H Tauste · ITF · Round of 32
ITA
G. Carlini
#1746ATP
21 yrs
Last 10
LWWWLLWWLL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
ESP
Noah Lopez Cherubino
#1261ATP
19 yrs
Last 10
LLLWLWLLWW
Carlini G.
vs
Lopez Cherubino N.

G. Carlini faces Noah Lopez Cherubino in the M25+H Tauste round of 32 on hard. Noah Lopez Cherubino is the paper favourite — ranked #1261 — but G. Carlini arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Noah Lopez Cherubino's 1.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Carlini G.35%
Lopez Cherubino N.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Lopez Cherubino N. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Carlini G.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Lopez Cherubino N.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

3 vs 4 matches

Statistics

This season
Carlini G.Lopez Cherubino N.
1st serve in·Even
58%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
34%
Break points saved·Dominant
50%
20%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.3
1.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Carlini G.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Lopez Cherubino N.

Lopez Cherubino N.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Carlini G.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
31°CMainly clear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 39%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw