Pablo Carreno Busta vs Valentin Royer — Montreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#69ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$896kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 2nd on
Valentin Royer
FRA
Valentin Royer
#104ATP
1641ELO
1585Hard ELO
$789kYTD
$1.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLLLL
Carreno Busta P.
6-1 5-7 2-6
Royer V.
Carreno Busta P.
6521
Royer V.
1762

Valentin Royer defeated Pablo Carreno Busta in the Round of 128 at the Montreal tournament. The match ended with a score of 1-6, 7-5, 6-2 in favor of Royer.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Carreno Busta P.Royer V.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
5.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Carreno Busta P.Royer V.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
45
59
Break points saved·Even
93
94
Break points won·Dominant
60
30
Deciding sets·Dominant
15
76
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
85
62

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Carreno Busta P.65%
Royer V.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Carreno Busta P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Carreno Busta P.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Royer V.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+159 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1585
7.0Overall Elo 1800
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1641
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.22 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw