Federico Arnaboldi vs N. Ciavarella — M25 Fano Round of 32
M25 Fano · ITF · Round of 32
—
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
clay
Arnaboldi F.vs
Ciavarella N.
Federico Arnaboldi faces N. Ciavarella in the M25 Fano round of 32 on clay. Federico Arnaboldi holds the paper edge — ranked #519, leading the head-to-head 1–0.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTCArnaboldi F.82%
Ciavarella N.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Arnaboldi F. heavily favoured
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Surface form: Federico Arnaboldi 6 of 10, N. Ciavarella 1 of 10 on clay recently — Federico Arnaboldi the sharper of late.
- Head-to-head: Federico Arnaboldi leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M15 Bergamo 2026.
- Fatigue load: Federico Arnaboldi carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedForm & Matchup
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
3.04 of last 10 on clay
Surface form0.0Lost last 5
Win streak0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
30 vs 4 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
58%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
56%
Return points won·Even
42%
41%
Break points saved·Even
57%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.1
1.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
2.3
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonBaseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Weather forecast
31°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 50%
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | M15 Bergamo | R32 | clay | Federico Arnaboldi | 4-6 6-3 6-2 |