Rebecca Marino vs Zeynep Sonmez — Toronto Round of 128

Toronto · WTA · Round of 128
CANWC
Rebecca Marino
#339WTA
1626ELO
1591Hard ELO
35 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWLLW
—
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
Zeynep Sonmez
TUR
Zeynep Sonmez
#52WTA
1800ELO
1730Hard ELO
$806kYTD
$2.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLWWWL
Marino R.
vs
Sonmez Z.

Rebecca Marino faces Zeynep Sonmez in the Toronto round of 128 on hard. Zeynep Sonmez holds the paper edge — ranked #52, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Marino R.27%
Sonmez Z.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sonmez Z. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: Zeynep Sonmez has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 50 vs Rebecca Marino's 0).
  • Fatigue load: Zeynep Sonmez carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · Marino R. 1–2 · Sonmez Z. 2–3 · small sample
Marino R. better · same surface · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Marino R.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Sonmez Z.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1591
Surface ELO
6.7+139 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1626
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1800
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.37 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

3 vs 35 matches

Statistics

This season
Marino R.Sonmez Z.
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
62%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
75%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
1.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Marino R.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Sonmez Z.

Sonmez Z.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Marino R.

Serve advantage — Marino R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Marino R.Sonmez Z.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
0
50
Break points saved·Slight edge
18
11
Break points won·Dominant
6
84
Deciding sets·Dominant
14
84
Tiebreaks·
61
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Marino R.Sonmez Z.
Freshness·
—
70

Sonmez Z.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw