Tatjana Maria vs Caty Mcnally — Toronto Round of 128
USA
Maria T.
Tatjana Maria faces Caty Mcnally in the Toronto round of 128 on hard. Caty Mcnally holds the paper edge — ranked #73, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Mcnally C. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Tatjana Maria brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 20), Caty Mcnally the stronger return game (Return Rating 55).
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Caty Mcnally has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 35 vs 0).
- Last match: Tatjana Maria dropped just 5 games past Isabella Marton.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMaria T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 52 games (7d) · Mcnally C.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 68 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.