Niels Mcdonald vs Jerome KymHagen Round of 32

Hagen · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#509ATP
1351ELO
1360Clay ELO
18 yrs
Last 10
LWLLWWLLWW
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
clay
#194ATP
1599ELO
1529Clay ELO
$98kYTD
$740kCAREER
23 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLWWWLW
Mcdonald N.
vs
Kym J.

Niels Mcdonald faces Jerome Kym in the Hagen round of 32 on clay. Jerome Kym holds the paper edge — ranked #194, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Mcdonald N.22%
Kym J.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kym J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Clay Elo 1360
Surface ELO
7.1+169 Clay Elo edge
1.9Overall Elo 1351
ELO gap
8.1Overall Elo 1598
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
4.65 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

5 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
63%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
60%
78%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
50%
Service points won·Clear edge
55%
68%
Return points won·Even
33%
34%
Break points saved·Even
57%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.4
11.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald N.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kym J.

Kym J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Mcdonald N.

Serve advantage — Kym J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
92

Mcdonald N.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Kym J.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw