Xiyu Wang vs Daria Kasatkina — Toronto Round of 128
Wang X.
Xiyu Wang faces Daria Kasatkina in the Toronto round of 128 on hard. Daria Kasatkina holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Xiyu Wang 38 games in 14 days, Daria Kasatkina 98.
- Under pressure: Daria Kasatkina has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 49 vs Xiyu Wang's 0).
- Head-to-head: Daria Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Wuhan 2018.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadWang X.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 4 days rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-09-24 | Wuhan | R32 | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 6-1 3-6 7-6 |