Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor — Montreal Round of 128
Sonego L.
Lorenzo Sonego faces Tallon Griekspoor in the Montreal round of 128 on hard. Tallon Griekspoor is the paper favourite — ranked #67, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage — but Lorenzo Sonego has won both their previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Lorenzo Sonego 0 games in 14 days, Tallon Griekspoor 33.
- Form trend: Lorenzo Sonego's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Tallon Griekspoor's has cooled.
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Sonego leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at Canada Masters 2024.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSonego L.: 16 days rest · Griekspoor T.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | R64 | hard | Lorenzo Sonego | 7-6 5-7 6-4 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Q2 | hard | Lorenzo Sonego | 3-6 6-4 7-6 |