Max Houkes vs Vilius Gaubas — Hagen Round of 32
LTU4
Houkes M.
Max Houkes faces Vilius Gaubas in the Hagen round of 32 on clay. Vilius Gaubas is the paper favourite — ranked #128, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage — but Max Houkes has won their only previous meeting. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Gaubas V. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Max Houkes comes in with 4 days of rest and 27 games in 14d, vs Vilius Gaubas's 1 and 78.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Vilius Gaubas has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 57 vs 23).
- Head-to-head: Max Houkes leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Palmanova 2 2023.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-24 | M25 Palmanova 2 | QF | clay | Max Houkes | 6-1 6-4 |