Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino — Montreal Round of 128
GBRQ
Fearnley J.
Jacob Fearnley faces Adrian Mannarino in the Montreal round of 128 on hard. Adrian Mannarino holds the paper edge — ranked #47, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Jacob Fearnley comes in with 1 days of rest and 134 games in 14d, vs Adrian Mannarino's 4 and 45.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jacob Fearnley has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 85 vs 57).
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadFearnley J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Mannarino A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.