Filip Peliwo vs Ivan Marrero CurbeloGrodzisk Mazowiecki Round of 32

Grodzisk Mazowiecki · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#548ATP
1234ELO
1211Hard ELO
32 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLLLLL
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
#356ATP
1303ELO
1237Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLWWW
Peliwo F.
vs
Marrero Curbelo I.

Filip Peliwo faces Ivan Marrero Curbelo in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki round of 32 on hard. Ivan Marrero Curbelo holds the paper edge — ranked #356, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Peliwo F.26%
Marrero Curbelo I.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Marrero Curbelo I. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1211
Surface ELO
5.3+26 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1234
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1302
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
0.00 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 12
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

7 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
60%
Return points won·Clear edge
31%
43%
Break points saved·Even
59%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.6
0.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Peliwo F.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Marrero Curbelo I.

Marrero Curbelo I.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Peliwo F.

Serve advantage — Marrero Curbelo I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
89

Marrero Curbelo I.: 9 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw