Federico Cina vs Elias Ymer | Federico Cina Wins 6-3 7-5

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

ITA

Federico Cina

#170ATP

1630ELO

1583Hard ELO

$355kYTD

$595kCAREER

19 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLLWWWLLLW

2 — 0

Sets

Monday, 3 August 2026 · 16:10

hard

STADIUM 1 · 3rd on

SWE

Elias Ymer

#190ATP

1548ELO

1527Hard ELO

$242kYTD

$2.5MCAREER

30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWWLLLWLW

Cina F.

6-3 7-5

Ymer E.

Cina F.

672

Ymer E.

350

Federico Cina defeated Elias Ymer in the Round of 32 at the Lexington hard-court tournament, winning 6-3, 7-5. Cina hit 6 aces and 7 double faults, while converting 71% of his break points and winning 75% of his first-serve points. Cina secured 5 service breaks to Ymer's 2.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Match story: Federico Cina closed it out in two sets, 6–3 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Cina F.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Ymer E.

Ymer E.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Cina F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Cina F.Ymer E.

—

Serve

—

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Cina F.Ymer E.

1st serve in·Even

63%

61%

1st serve points won·Even

72%

73%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

54%

49%

Service points won·Even

65%

64%

Return points won·Even

38%

35%

Break points saved·Slight edge

65%

57%

Aces / match·Clear edge

3.8

5.7

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.2

2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Cina F.Ymer E.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Slight edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC

Cina F.57%

Ymer E.43%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Cina F.

6.5

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Ymer E.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.7+56 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.3Hard Elo 1527

6.0Overall Elo 1630

ELO gap

4.0Overall Elo 1548

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

8.07 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

4.65 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

6.0Clay → Hard

Surface transition

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Cina F.Ymer E.

Freshness·Clear edge

Cina F.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Ymer E.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather

28°CMainly clear

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 51%

Federico Cina vs Elias Ymer — Lexington Round of 32

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard