Federico Cina vs Elias Ymer — Lexington Round of 32

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
ITA
Federico Cina
#181ATP
1630ELO
1583Hard ELO
$296kYTD
$536kCAREER
19 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLLLW
—
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
Elias Ymer
SWE
Elias Ymer
#203ATP
1548ELO
1527Hard ELO
$191kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLWWWLW
Cina F.
vs
Ymer E.

Federico Cina faces Elias Ymer in the Lexington round of 32 on hard. Federico Cina holds the paper edge — ranked #181, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Cina F.57%
Ymer E.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Cina F. 0–1 · Ymer E. 2–0 · small sample
Ymer E. better · different surfaces (Clay × Hard) · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cina F.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Ymer E.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.7+56 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Hard Elo 1527
6.0Overall Elo 1630
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1548
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.35 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
Cina F.Ymer E.
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
65%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.8
5.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cina F.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Ymer E.

Ymer E.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Cina F.

Serve advantage — Cina F.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Cina F.Ymer E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
42
13
Break points saved·Dominant
87
27
Break points won·Dominant
32
5
Deciding sets·Dominant
52
87
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
28
18

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Cina F.Ymer E.
Freshness·Even
96
96

Cina F.: 13 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Ymer E.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 91%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw