Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Cameron Norrie — Montreal Round of 128
Ugo Carabelli C.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli faces Cameron Norrie in the Montreal round of 128 on hard. Cameron Norrie holds the paper edge — ranked #39, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Norrie C. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Camilo Ugo Carabelli 25 games in 14 days, Cameron Norrie 37.
- Under pressure: Cameron Norrie has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 86 vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli's 48).
- Win streak: Cameron Norrie arrives on a 3-match winning run.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadUgo Carabelli C.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Norrie C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.