Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga — Montreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
Alexei Popyrin
AUSQ
Alexei Popyrin
#103ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$573kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLLLWWL
—
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
Roman Andres Burruchaga
ARG
Roman Andres Burruchaga
#58ATP
1711ELO
1545Hard ELO
$458kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWLLL
Popyrin A.
vs
Burruchaga R.

Alexei Popyrin faces Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Montreal round of 128 on hard. Roman Andres Burruchaga holds the paper edge — ranked #58.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Popyrin A.63%
Burruchaga R.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Popyrin A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Popyrin A. 0–1 · Burruchaga R. 0–1 · small sample
Both lost · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Popyrin A.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Burruchaga R.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+136 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1545
5.4Overall Elo 1741
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1711
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.64 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season
Popyrin A.Burruchaga R.
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
60%
Return points won·Clear edge
31%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.2
2.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Popyrin A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Burruchaga R.

Burruchaga R.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Serve advantage — Burruchaga R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Popyrin A.Burruchaga R.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
45
67
Break points saved·Dominant
98
68
Break points won·Dominant
0
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
61
84
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
89
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Popyrin A.Burruchaga R.
Freshness·Slight edge
78
86

Popyrin A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
22°CRain
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 93%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw