Edas Butvilas vs Tristan BoyerLexington Round of 32

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#250ATP
1544ELO
1499Hard ELO
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLWLL
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
#162ATP
1561ELO
1525Hard ELO
$105kYTD
$960kCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLWLWW
Butvilas E.
vs
Boyer T.

Edas Butvilas faces Tristan Boyer in the Lexington round of 32 on hard. Tristan Boyer holds the paper edge — ranked #162, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Butvilas E.39%
Boyer T.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Boyer T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Edas Butvilas comes in with 8 days of rest and 28 games in 14d, vs Tristan Boyer's 3 and 108.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Tristan Boyer has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 43 vs 21).
  • Surface form: Edas Butvilas 1 of 4, Tristan Boyer 2 of 4 on hard recently — Tristan Boyer the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Butvilas E. 1–0 · Boyer T. 1–0 · small sample
Both won · hard to compare — different surfaces (Clay × Hard) · 9 months apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1499
Surface ELO
5.3+26 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1544
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1561
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
4.35 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 7
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

37 vs 11 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
47%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.2
6.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Butvilas E.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Boyer T.

Boyer T.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Butvilas E.

Serve advantage — Butvilas E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
21
43
Break points saved·Even
85
83
Break points won·Clear edge
4
20
Deciding sets·Dominant
15
81
Tiebreaks·Dominant
43
7

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
93
73

Butvilas E.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Boyer T.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 84 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 91%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw