Laura Samson vs Mona Barthel — Warsaw Round of 32

Warsaw · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

CZE

Laura Samson

#153WTA

1690ELO

1545Hard ELO

18 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWLLWLLW

—

Sets

Monday, 3 August 2026 · 08:00

hard

GER

Mona Barthel

#215WTA

1551ELO

1533Hard ELO

36 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLWWLWLLW

Samson L.

Barthel M.

Laura Samson faces Mona Barthel in the Warsaw round of 32 on hard. Laura Samson is the paper favourite — ranked #153 — but Mona Barthel has won their only previous meeting.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC

Samson L.64%

Barthel M.36%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Samson L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Laura Samson 83 games in 14 days, Mona Barthel 68.
Head-to-head: Mona Barthel leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W75 Ricany 1 2024.
Win streak: Laura Samson arrives on a 4-match winning run.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

2 common opponents · Samson L. 2–1 · Barthel M. 1–1 · small sample

Barthel M. better · same surface · ⚠ lower-tier event▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Samson L.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Barthel M.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.2+13 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.8Hard Elo 1533

6.7Overall Elo 1690

ELO gap

3.3Overall Elo 1551

3.0Trails 0–1 on hard

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on hard

4.86 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.17 of last 10 on hard

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

6.0Clay → Hard

Surface transition

6.0Clay → Hard

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

29 vs 42 matches

Statistics

This season

Samson L.Barthel M.

1st serve in·Even

56%

55%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

65%

70%

2nd serve points won·Even

44%

Service points won·Even

56%

58%

Return points won·Even

45%

Break points saved·Even

56%

57%

Aces / match·Slight edge

2.6

3.7

Double faults / match·Dominant

5.5

7.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Samson L.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Barthel M.

Barthel M.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Samson L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load