Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci — Montreal Round of 128
Baez S.
Sebastian Baez faces Mattia Bellucci in the Montreal round of 128 on hard. Sebastian Baez holds the paper edge — ranked #53, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Mattia Bellucci brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 19), Sebastian Baez the stronger return game (Return Rating 61).
- Under pressure: Sebastian Baez has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 71 vs Mattia Bellucci's 45).
- Fatigue load: Sebastian Baez carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBaez S.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.