Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ariana Arseneault — Toronto Round of 128

Toronto · WTA · Round of 128
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
ESP
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
#59WTA
1721ELO
1664Hard ELO
$391kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWWLWLW
—
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
CANWC
Ariana Arseneault
#407WTA
1273ELO
1260Hard ELO
24 yrs
Last 10
LWLWWWWWWL
Bouzas Maneiro J.
vs
Arseneault A.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Bouzas Maneiro J.70%
Arseneault A.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bouzas Maneiro J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Arseneault A.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+404 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1260
10.0Overall Elo 1721
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1273
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.82 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.65 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

32 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
Bouzas Maneiro J.Arseneault A.
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
47%
Service points won·Even
54%
56%
Return points won·Even
45%
46%
Break points saved·Even
51%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.9
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bouzas Maneiro J.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Arseneault A.

Arseneault A.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Bouzas Maneiro J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Bouzas Maneiro J.Arseneault A.
Freshness·Clear edge
98
79

Bouzas Maneiro J.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Arseneault A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw