Lorenzo Angelini vs Petr NesterovPlovdiv 2 Round of 32

Plovdiv 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#571ATP
20 yrs
Last 10
LLWWLWWLWW
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
clay
#360ATP
1456ELO
1410Clay ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLWLW
Angelini L.
vs
Nesterov P.

Lorenzo Angelini faces Petr Nesterov in the Plovdiv 2 round of 32 on clay. Petr Nesterov holds the paper edge — ranked #360. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Angelini L.17%
Nesterov P.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Nesterov P. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.35 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

4 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
54%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.8
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (4 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Angelini L.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Nesterov P.

Nesterov P.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Angelini L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
93

Angelini L.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Nesterov P.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw