Andres Andrade vs Andre Ilagan — Lexington Round of 32

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
ECUALT
Andres Andrade
#262ATP
1505ELO
1427Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLLLLWW
—
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
USAALT
Andre Ilagan
#248ATP
1543ELO
1518Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLLLWWWLL
Andrade A.
vs
Ilagan A.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Andrade A.43%
Ilagan A.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Andrade A.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Ilagan A.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1427
Surface ELO
6.1+92 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1505
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1543
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
6.3Won 71% in Usa (70)
Country comfort
5.5Won 58% in Usa (45)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

32 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
Andrade A.Ilagan A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Andrade A.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Ilagan A.

Ilagan A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Andrade A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Andrade A.Ilagan A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
44
37
Break points saved·Clear edge
53
76
Break points won·Dominant
50
17
Deciding sets·Dominant
45
71
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
14

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Andrade A.Ilagan A.
Freshness·Slight edge
79
88

Andrade A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Ilagan A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 91%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw