Aidan Kim vs Karl Poling — Lexington Qualifying Semi-final
Kim A.Aidan Kim faces Karl Poling in the Lexington qualifying semi-final on hard. They have met once, Aidan Kim leading 1–0. Aidan Kim brings the better recent hard form (8 of 10).
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Kim A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Surface form: Aidan Kim 8 of 10, Karl Poling 5 of 10 on hard recently — Aidan Kim the sharper of late.
- Head-to-head: Aidan Kim leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Edwardsville 1 2025.
- Fatigue load: Karl Poling carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (4 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-30 | M25 Edwardsville 1 | R32 | hard | Aidan Kim | 5-7 7-5 6-2 |