Aidan Kim vs Karl Poling — Lexington Q32

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Q32
USA
Aidan Kim
#574ATP
21 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM 2 · 2nd on
USA10
Karl Poling
#491ATP
1314ELO
1320Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWLW
Kim A.
6-2 6-4
Poling K.
Kim A.
662
Poling K.
240

Aidan Kim advanced to the Lexington semifinals with a 6-2, 6-4 win over Karl Poling. Kim hit 7 aces to Poling's 1 and converted 50% of his break points, compared to Poling's 20%. Kim won 72% of his first-serve points and secured 4 service breaks to Poling's 1.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-30M25 Edwardsville 1R32hardAidan Kim5-7 7-5 6-2

Statistics

This season
Kim A.Poling K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
58%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
41%
Break points saved·Even
63%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Kim A.62%
Poling K.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kim A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kim A.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Poling K.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.0Won 66% in Usa (115)
Country comfort
5.0Won 50% in Usa (32)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Kim A.Poling K.
Freshness·Slight edge
75
85

Kim A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 49 games (7d) · Poling K.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 83%

Draw