Thiago Monteiro vs Ivan Gakhov — Hagen Qualifying Semi-final
Monteiro T.
Thiago Monteiro faces Ivan Gakhov in the Hagen qualifying semi-final on clay. Thiago Monteiro is the paper favourite — ranked #303, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage — but Ivan Gakhov has won their only previous meeting.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Monteiro T. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Surface form: Thiago Monteiro 7 of 10, Ivan Gakhov 3 of 10 on clay recently — Thiago Monteiro the sharper of late.
- Head-to-head: Ivan Gakhov leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Geneva 2025.
- Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMonteiro T.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 99 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Geneva | Q1 | clay | Ivan Gakhov | 4-6 7-6 6-3 |