Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Roger Pascual Ferra

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final

MEX3

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

#320ATP

1527ELO

1487Hard ELO

21 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LLLWWLWWLW

—

Sets

Sunday, 2 August 2026 · 10:30

hard

COURT 3 · 2nd on

ESP

Roger Pascual Ferra

#729ATP

20 yrs

Last 10

LWLWWWWWWW

Pacheco Mendez R.

Pascual Ferra R.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Pacheco Mendez R.62%

Pascual Ferra R.38%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pacheco Mendez R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Pacheco Mendez R.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Pascual Ferra R.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.05 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

6.67 of last 10 on hard

0.0Lost last 3

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 2 matches

Statistics

This season

Pacheco Mendez R.Pascual Ferra R.

1st serve in·Clear edge

60%

73%

1st serve points won·Clear edge

74%

56%

2nd serve points won·Even

54%

53%

Service points won·Slight edge

66%

55%

Return points won·Even

38%

41%

Break points saved·Dominant

71%

44%

Aces / match·Dominant

5.0

0.5

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.2

1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Pacheco Mendez R.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Pascual Ferra R.

Pascual Ferra R.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Pacheco Mendez R.

Serve advantage — Pacheco Mendez R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Pacheco Mendez R.Pascual Ferra R.

Freshness·Clear edge

Pacheco Mendez R.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Pascual Ferra R.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

22°CMainly clear

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 86%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Roger Pascual Ferra — Lexington Qualifying Semi-final