Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic — Montreal Round of 128
JPNQ
CRO
Shimabukuro S.
Sho Shimabukuro faces Marin Cilic in the Montreal round of 128 on hard. Marin Cilic holds the paper edge — ranked #86, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Sho Shimabukuro's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Marin Cilic's has cooled.
- Under pressure: Marin Cilic has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 66 vs Sho Shimabukuro's 42).
- Fatigue load: Sho Shimabukuro carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadShimabukuro S.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.