Aleksandar Vukic vs Tomas Barrios VeraMontreal Q32

Montreal · ATP · Q32
#99ATP
1630ELO
1597Hard ELO
$366kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 2nd on
#147ATP
1615ELO
1552Hard ELO
$207kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
28 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLLL
Vukic A.
7-6 6-2
Barrios Vera T.
Vukic A.
7762
Barrios Vera T.
6420

Aleksandar Vukic won the Montreal final, defeating Tomas Barrios Vera 7-6, 6-2. Vukic hit 10 aces to Barrios Vera's 3 and did not commit a double fault, while converting 29% of break points to Barrios Vera's 33%. Vukic won 81% of his first-serve points and broke Barrios Vera's serve four times, while Barrios Vera converted two breaks.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-18Miami MastersQ2hardTomas Barrios Vera6-3 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
34%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
3.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
27
16
Break points saved·Clear edge
90
72
Break points won·Even
7
10
Deciding sets·Slight edge
15
5
Tiebreaks·Even
89
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Vukic A.57%
Barrios Vera T.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+45 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1552
5.2Overall Elo 1630
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1615
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
75
86

Vukic A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d) · Barrios Vera T.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw